Chapter 23 · Prolonged collapse
23.4 The four phases and their priorities
In a prolonged collapse your decisions change over time. What is urgent in the first hour (safety) is not the same as in the third week (health, morale, money). Use this table as a guide.
| Phase | Priority 1 | Priority 2 | Priority 3 | Typical mistake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 72 hours | Immediate safety: injuries, fire, gas, CO, flooding. Find out what happened (radio). | Secure water: fill containers while there is pressure; shut off the main valve if pipes are damaged. | Protect cold food and medicines that need refrigeration. Check on vulnerable neighbors. | Burning phone battery on social media; opening the refrigerator; going out driving unnecessarily. |
| Weeks 1–2 | Daily routine: water, food, hygiene, sleep. Temperature control (heat or cold). | Ration power and fuel; medicine inventory and a plan to refill. | Organize the complex: shifts, needs list, information point. | Not rationing at the start; letting your guard down on hygiene (diarrhea, infections). |
| Month 1 onward | Health: chronic illnesses, accumulated heat exposure, wounds, mental health. | Resupply: distribution centers, pharmacies that reopen, FEMA and Red Cross aid. | Decide whether to stay or go (23.13). Money and income. | Waiting for "the power to come back tomorrow" with no plan B; isolating yourself. |
| Months | Adaptation: stable solar power, water collection, work and school routine. | Repair and document damage (insurance, FEMA). | Sustained community support; attention to mental health (chapter 25). | Burnout; neglecting medical checkups; going into debt without a plan. |
First 72 hours: action list
- Confirm what happened and how big it is. AM/FM or NOAA radio, phone alerts (your city or county alert system, chapter 9). If the neighbors and the traffic lights are also without power, assume it will be a long one until you know otherwise.
- Fill up on water right away. Bathtub, pots, and water jugs while there is pressure. Every hour you wait, the system may lose pressure.
- Secure the medicines. Put refrigerated ones in a cooler with ice; note the time. Check how many days' supply each person has.
- Organize power. Only one phone on for alerts; the rest in airplane mode. Charge from the power station during sunny hours if you have a panel.
- Temperature control. In summer, close the curtains on the sunny side from the morning; in winter, bring everyone together in one room (chapters 9 and 10).
- Eat what's in the refrigerator first, then the freezer, and the pantry last (chapter 22).
- Check on your neighbors next door, upstairs, and across the way, especially older adults and anyone who depends on medical equipment.
- Decide the plan for the week as a family: who takes care of what (see the sheet at the end of the chapter).
Weeks 1–2: routine saves you
Month 1 onward: sustain
After the first month, the risk changes. In Puerto Rico, a George Washington University study estimated 2,975 excess deaths between September 2017 and February 2018; they did not happen on the day of the hurricane, but in the following months. A Harvard survey published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that, on average, households went 84 days without power, 68 without water, and 41 without cell signal, and that 31% reported disruptions in medical services. The lesson: a long emergency is, above all, a health emergency.
