Chapter 23 · Long-Term Planning · 28 min read
Prolonged collapse: weeks or months without services
Most blackouts last hours. But recent history shows that an entire region of the U.S. can go weeks or months without power, reliable water, gasoline, or pharmacies: Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (2017), New Orleans after Katrina (2005), and, by a very narrow margin, a large region of the country during a historic winter storm (2021). This chapter is not about the end of the world. It is about something more likely and more useful: how to keep your household, pets included, healthy in your home or apartment when services are slow to return. The underlying rule is simple: what kills the most in a prolonged collapse is not violence, it is heat, cold, the lack of medicine and medical care, and contaminated water.
The essentials · if you only have a minute
- Think in phases: first 72 hours (safety and water), weeks 1–2 (routine and rationing), month 1 onward (sustaining health and deciding whether to stay).
- In warm climates the biggest risk is heat without air conditioning. Have a cooling plan that does not depend on the grid, and leave in time if you cannot keep the most vulnerable and your pets safe.
- Chronic medications are priority number one after water. In Puerto Rico, the interruption of medical care was one of the main causes of death in the following months.
- Independent power: a battery power station with solar panels will not run an air conditioner, but it will run fans, CPAP machines, radios, phones, and lights. Size it by watt-hours, not by "size."
- Water for 30 days: about 30 gallons (114 L) per person, plus water for your pets based on their weight, and a high-capacity purification method (chapter 3).
- Cooperate with your neighbors. Decades of evidence from disasters show that mutual aid is the norm and the best strategy; panic and looting are far less common than people believe.
- Information: confirm everything with two official sources before acting. Rumors do real harm.
In this chapter
23.1Realistic scenarios2 min read23.2Geomagnetic storms and EMP: what is known and what is uncertain2 min read23.3What fails and in what order1 min read23.4The four phases and their priorities3 min read0/1023.5Independent power for an apartment4 min read0/523.6Summer heat without air conditioning: the biggest risk in warm climates3 min read0/523.7Food and cooking for weeks1 min read23.8Long-term water2 min read23.9Medicines and chronic conditions1 min read0/923.10Money and bartering1 min read23.11Community security: organizing the complex2 min read0/523.12Reliable information and rumors1 min read0/523.13Stay or leave the city?1 min read23.14Lessons from real cases1 min read23.15Common mistakes1 min read23.16Worksheet: 30-day inventory and plan2 min read0/5
Chapter sources (1)
- 1.NOAA Space Weather Scales (escala G1–G5) — NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales- explanation 2.Event After Action Plan, May 2024 Geomagnetic Disturbance — NERC — https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/GMD/Documents/ Event_After_Action_Plan_May_2024.pdf 3.Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures (2008) — Comisión EMP — https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA484672.pdf 4.Addressing the Critical Shortage of Power Transformers to Ensure Reliability of the U.S. Grid (borrador, 2024) — NIAC / CISA — https:// www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/groups/niac 5."Texas power grid was 4 minutes and 37 seconds away from collapsing" — Texas Public Radio / NPR, 24 feb. 2021 — https://www.tpr.org/ environment/2021-02-24/texas-power-grid-was-4-minutes-and-37-seconds-away-from-collapsing-heres-how-it-happened 6.Beyond the Big Freeze: A Message From SAWS' CEO — SAWS — https://www.saws.org/ 7."Safe to drink: All boil water notices lifted for SAWS customers" — KSAT, 23 feb. 2021 — https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/02/23/ safe-to-drink-all-boil-water-notices-lifted-for-saws-customers-on-tuesday/ 8.Ascertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane María in Puerto Rico — Universidad George Washington, 2018 — https:// publichealth.gwu.edu/ 9.Kishore N. et al. Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria — New England Journal of Medicine, 2018 — https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/ 10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 10."11 months after Hurricane Maria, officials say all power is restored" — NPR, 15 ago. 2018 — https://www.npr.org/ 11.Brunkard J. et al. Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Louisiana, 2005 — Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2008 — https:// pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18756175/ 12.Effects of Hurricane Beryl in Texas (resumen de reportes de CenterPoint y autoridades de salud) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Effects_of_Hurricane_Beryl_in_Texas 13.Information Regarding Insulin Storage and Switching Between Products in an Emergency — FDA — https://www.fda.gov/drugs/emergency- preparedness-drugs/information-regarding-insulin-storage-and-switching-between-products-emergency 14.Texas Occupations Code § 562.054 (surtido de emergencia) — Estado de Texas — https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/ 15.Rainwater Harvesting in Texas — Texas Water Development Board — https://www.twdb.texas.gov/innovativewater/rainwater/doc/ RWH_in_Texas.pdf 16.Quarantelli E. L. Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities (2008) — Disaster Research Center, Universidad de Delaware — https:// udspace.udel.edu/ 17.Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) — FEMA — https://www.fema.gov/cert 18.Power Outages / Extreme Heat — Ready.gov — https://www.ready.gov/power-outages 19.Hot Weather / centros de enfriamiento — Ciudad de San Antonio — https://www.sa.gov/HotWeather 20.Asistencia por desastre — FEMA — https://www.disasterassistance.gov
